I agree with your last three paragraphs.
First paragraph - analyzing data out of the US, the most violent places also have the most restrictive gun laws.
Meanwhile, in places with concealed carry - typically less crime.
Anecdotally, in past times America had a LOT more guns per capita and yet much less murder. A friend of mine who went to high school in the 1960s told me how he used to go to a marksmanship club after school, at his school, so he would take his rifle and leave it in the car while he was in class.
I asked him about school shootings and he said, "If we had a problem with each other, we might throw a punch. We never got our guns. The idea of killing someone - that was unthinkable."
The culture has changed - but statistically, per capita, Americans were much more armed and much less dangerous.
Thanks for engaging.